Welcome to Casino Game Strategy Reviews.
Today, we are going to revisit an earlier strategy review video, Carbon Copy.
A couple of questions have been submitted in relation to this strategy;
Does it hold up to multi-table variance?, and
Can we improve the resulting balances?
Will there be more questions after this?
Let’s find out….
I won’t go into too much depth about the bet selection,
as this was covered in a previous video.
However, in short;
The bet selection is for the evens pay out outside bets in Roulette,
Red/Black, High/Low and Odd/Even.
You track the results of six spins
say, Red, Black, Red, Red, Red, Black for example.
You bet on the next six spins that this will repeat.
You utilise a standard martingale progression and bet all six spins, win or lose.
For the analysis we will use High/Low as we did in the original video.
Right, with that out of the way, lets look at the results against our new data.
Our European tables provide a great example of where variance can kick in and hurt a balance.
Whereas, in general, this method will produce positive results,
we can see that the PaddyPower table totally went against us.
To analyse other betting methods in this video I am going to select the
mid-performing table to keep upcoming graphs a little clearer.
In this case I will select the Grosvenor Victoria table.
Our American tables were a little more stable,
but Evolution 1 did suffer a total 6 bet loss.
The mid-performing table here is Evolution 2, so this
will be our baseline for testing the other betting methods.
Both the European and American balance graphs show the variance differences between tables.
The frequency of six bet losses can change,
so this is something to be very aware of when playing this strategy.
For both table types I will be expanding on the original Standard Martingale betting
and including; Flat Betting, Grand Martingale and D’Alembert.
Looking at our European results first, we can see that Flat Betting and D’Alembert
can reduce the volatility during six bet losses but it also reduces the profit potential.
Grand Martingale, probably as expected, produced the highest balance
but also had the lowest balance point after a 6 bet loss.
It’s the age old balance of risk and reward.
Balance differences are more pronounced on the American table
purely down to the increased house edge.
Grand Martingale again produced the highest balance but
with the volatility that we expect from such a method.
Flat betting and D’Alembert did not perform as well on the American table
and never really gained any upward momentum.
Before I re-rate the strategy, I want to highlight a couple of points.
I have performed additional analysis of various aspects of our results.
Initially I was interested to know the distribution of wins across the six bets,
whether it was weighted on one side or another.
You can see that generally the distribution is pretty even,
so we cannot apply a method such as Bell Curve to our staking.
Outside bets are probably the worst bets in roulette, so it will always
be a struggle to refine a consistently profitable approach for these.
Therefore, I will be re-rating this strategy based on its original bet selection
utilising the original Standard Martingale approach.
This has the best balance of risk and reward
over the other methods we have looked at today.
Strategy Design is OK.
There really is little you can do with an outside bet only strategy on Roulette.
Its neither bad or good, its just a variant of many similar approaches.
Bankroll is somewhat dependant on how you play.
For a hit and run player, it may be relatively small.
For longer durations it will need to be much higher
to allow for multiple potential six bet losses.
This has a Medium to High Risk as we know six bet losses are possible.
However, we also know that it will total 63 units lost, so a known quantity.
Set this as a stop loss and it stops this from being a High Risk strategy.
With even chance bets and this bet selection method, Standard Martingale works.
It is not ideal but there are few options out there to improve on it.
I would say that this would be an enjoyable method for the hit and run player
who is happy to hop tables and scrape profit here and there.
Other players may wish to focus on a better strategy.
If you found this video helpful or would like to suggest other strategies
for me to review then please leave a comment in the section below.
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With that, I’ll see you in the next video and remember,
enjoy the casino, but play sensibly.