Possibility of Life-Threatening Storm Surge with Hurricane Ian: NHC

WILL BE GETTING CLOSE HURRICANE IAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. APPRECIATE THAT. WELL, LET’S BRING IN NOW THE ACTING DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MICHAEL BRENNAN, MICHAEL, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. I KNOW IT’S A PRETTY ACTIVE AFTERNOON THERE AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, SO OVERALL, THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT , AT LEAST WHAT WE’RE EXPECTING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DOES THAT GIVE YOU GUYS THERE AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER? A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE. WELL, WHAT WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WE’RE GOING TO HAVE A POWERFUL HURRICANE MOVING

TOWARD THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. IT’S GOING TO BE MOVING SLOWLY. THERE’S GOING TO BE A LOT OF WIND. A LOT OF STORM SURGE A LOT OF HEAVY RAINFALLS. WE’RE REALLY LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD MULTI HAZARD EVENT AND THE WEST COAST OF STORMS ARE FLORIDA’S SO SENSITIVE TO STORM SURGE THAT WE HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE IN THESE AREAS HERE. ESPECIALLY TAMPA BAY. WE COULD SEE INUNDATION UP TO 10 FT. ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. I’M SIX FT. TALL THAT’S FOUR FT. ABOVE THE HEIGHT

OF MY HEAD, YOU KNOW, ESPECIALLY AS YOU GET INTO THESE UPPER REACHES OF THE BAYS OR WHERE YOU COULD HAVE THOSE HIGHEST STORM SURGE VALUES. ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR 4

TO 7 FT DOWN INTO THE FOURTH MYERS AREA, SO THOSE ARE THOSE ARE THOSE AREAS WHERE PEOPLE NEED TO HAVE THAT HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE AND HEAT ANY EVACUATION ORDERS THEY’RE GIVEN. CERTAINLY IN TAMPA TO AS WE’RE DEALING WITH A MAJOR U. S CITY ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MICHAEL WHEN IT COMES TO THAT STORM. SEARCH THREAT. LET’S TALK A BIT MORE ABOUT THAT, BECAUSE IAN

IS EXPECTED TO BE A CAT FOUR HURRICANE BUT THERE IS SOME WEAKENING TO IS THE MESSAGING A BIT CHALLENGING. JUST CLEAR THE AIR HERE REGARDING THAT STORM SURGE THREAT JUST BECAUSE OF WEAKENING HURRICANE. MIGHT MOVE ASHORE DOES NOT MEAN THAT THAT STORM SURGE THREATS GOING TO BE ANY LESS RIGHT. RIGHT. IN SOME WAYS, THE STORM SURGE THREAT CAN GET EVEN LARGER AS THE AS THE PEOPLE COME DOWN IN THE WIND FIELD GETS BIGGER. THE HURRICANE CAN MOVE EVEN MORE WATER AROUND AND EXACERBATE. THAT IS THE FACT THAT HE IS GOING TO BE MOVING REALLY SLOWLY

AND YOU’RE GONNA CONTINUAL PUSH ONSHORE WINDS THAT ARE GOING TO BE PUSHING OCEAN, THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THESE BAYS AND HARBORS AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA OVER THE COURSE OF, YOU KNOW A DAY OR MAYBE MORE, AND THAT’S GOING TO REALLY PILE THE SURGE UP INTO THESE BAYS AND CREEKS AND CANALS INTO WHERE PEOPLE LIVE, AND THAT’S THAT’S WHY THEY GOING TO BE ASKED TO LEAVE THEIR HOMES IN MANY CASES, AND WHEN IT COMES TO THE ACTUAL THREAT THAT WE HAVE OF HURRICANE, IAN, PERHAPS THESE THREATS ARE CHANGING JUST A LITTLE BIT

MICHAEL TOO, BECAUSE THE STORM THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SOME. SO WHAT ARE WE LOOKING AT? WITH THAT THE RAIN THREAT GOING TO CERTAINLY INCREASE AS PERHAPS THE STORM DOES SLOW DOWN. RIGHT AS YOU SEE THESE DOTS HERE, SHOWING THE FORECAST OF THE CENTER POSITION OF IAN FROM EIGHT A.M. WEDNESDAY UP TO EIGHT A.M. THURSDAY. IT’S ONLY MOVING LESS THAN ABOUT FIVE MPH. SO IT’S GOING TO TAKE IT A WHOLE DAY JUST TO MOVE FROM, YOU KNOW, EAST OF WEST OF FORT MYERS UP TO NEAR THE TAMPA BAY AREA, SO THAT’S GOING TO

EXACERBATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL. WE’RE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA IF YOU LOOK AT THE RAINFALL, FLOODING THREAT, IT’S REALLY GOING TO BE MAXIMIZED HERE FROM TAMPA TO ORLANDO. THIS IS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND WE COULD HAVE A STORM. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ALRIGHT CERTAINLY SOMETHING THAT WE HAVE TO WATCH WHILE ACTING NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DEPUTY DIRECTOR APPRECIATE YOUR TIME MICHAEL B

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