The significance of Turkey’s election as Erdogan’s control hangs in the balance

JOHN: GOOD EVENING. I’M JOHN YANG. IN TURKEY, THEY ARE COUNTING THE VOTES FROM TODAY’S ELECTION TO SEE IF PRESIDENT RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN WILL EXTEND HIS TWO DECADE HOLD ON POWER. THE STATE RUN NEWS AGENCY INDICATES ERDOGAN MAY BE HEADED FOR A RUNOFF IN TWO WEEKS. THE ELECTION, WITH A UNIFIED OPPOSITION, REPRESENTS THE GREATEST POLITICAL CHALLENGE YET TO ERDOGAN’S INCREASINGLY AUTHORITARIAN RULE. CHALLENGER KEMAL KILICDAROGLU NARROWLY LED ERDOGAN IN PRE-ELECTION SURVEYS. HE’S A RETIRED CIVIL SERVANT AND RAN ON A PROMISE OF RESTORING DEMOCRACY, WHICH ERDOGAN HAS ERODED. SOME TURKISH VOTERS WENT TO THE POLLS IN THE MOOD

FOR CHANGE. MURAT: FOR ME THIS FEELS LIKE A PARTING OF WAYS. I DON’T KNOW HOW TO DESCRIBE IT. I CAN’T THINK OF A MORE IMPORTANT ELECTION. JOHN: WHILE WE AWAIT THE FINAL VOTE COUNT, WE TURN TO SONER CAGAPTAY, WHO’S HEAD OF THE TURKISH RESEARCH PROGRAM AT THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY. HIS MOST RECENT BOOK IS A SULTAN IN AUTUMN: ERDOGAN FACES TURKEY’S UNCONTAINABLE FORCES. TO USE YOUR TERMS, WHAT ARE THE UNCONTAINABLE FORCES DRIVING ERDOGAN TO A RUNOFF TONIGHT? SONER: I WOULD SAY THE ECONOMY. HE HAS WON ELECTIONS UNTIL RECENTLY ON A PLATFORM OF

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND HE HAS NEVER ONE ELECTIONS WELL NOT DELIVERING — WHILE NOT DELIVERING BOTH. THE ECONOMY WAS A BIG FACTOR GOING INTO THE ELECTIONS AND

THE EARTHQUAKE HURT HIS POPULARITY. HIS STRENGTH IS HIS INFORMATION CONTROL, OR CONTROL OF INFORMATION FLOW. HE HAS ELIMINATED THE AUTONOMY OF MANY OF TURKEYS INSTITUTIONS FROM COURTS TO FOREIGN MINISTRY, TO THE CENTRAL BANK WITH GRAVE RAMIFICATIONS FOR POLICY BUT ALSO ELECTORAL BOARDS AND MEDIA. 90% OF THE MEDIA IS ALIGNED WITH HIM AND 80% OF CITIZENS CANNOT READ LINKAGES OTHER THAN TURKISH. YOU CAN CURATE REALITY. IN THE RUN-UP TO ELECTIONS,

CITIZENS TO NOT HEAR ABOUT INFLATION, JOURNALISTS IN JAIL, OR RELIEF AGENCIES PROVIDING EIGHT AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE, BUT HOW ERDOGAN HAS MADE TURKEY A GREAT MILITARY INDUSTRIAL POWER. HE REPEATED THIS OVER AND OVER IN THE MEDIA, GIVEN A LARGE MAJORITY OF CITIZENS READ WHAT HE CURATED. ERDOGAN THE INVENTOR OF NATIVIST POLITICS OF THIS CENTURY GLOBALLY. YOU SPREAD LIES, YOU REPEAT THEM SO MUCH THEY BECOME REALITY AND YOU WIN ELECTIONS BASED ON THAT, AND PEOPLE FORGOT THEY WERE LIES. JOHN: THE SELECTION IS CLOSELY WATCHED IN WESTERN CAPITALS, HERE IN WASHINGTON AND AT THE KREMLIN. WHAT IS AT

STAKE? SONER: A LOT IS AT STAKE. TURKEY PLAYS A ROLE IN THE ROLE — A ROLE IN THE WAR IN UKRAINE. VLADIMIR PUTIN DECIDED HE WANTED ERDOGAN TO WIN. THERE WAS HYPERINFLATION UNDER ERDOGAN, AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF CASH TRANSFERRED FROM RUSSIA TO TURKEY AND ERDOGAN HANDED THESE OUT IN THE FORM OF SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS AS WELL AS CHEAP GAS FROM RUSSIA HE GAVE FOR FREE TO VOTERS AND I THINK PERHAPS THAT PUT THEM CLOSE TO THE FINISH LINE. CLINTON WANTS HER TO WANT TO WIN BECAUSE HE IS A LIKE-MINDED METER — LIKE-MINDED LEADER THAT CHALLENGES

THE INTERNATIONAL ORDER. WE HAVE A RUNOFF LIKELY IN TWO WEEKS AND PUTIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ERDOGAN FINANCIALLY AND THROUGH INFORMATION OPERATIONS BECAUSE HE CANNOT AFFORD TO SEE ERDOGAN LOSE WHEN HE IS NOT WINNING IN UKRAINE. JOHN: TELL US ABOUT THE OPPONENT IN THE RACE. HOW MUCH OF HIS STRENGTH IS SUPPORT FOR HIM, HOW MUCH IS OPPOSITION TO ERDOGAN? SONER: HE IS A SOFT-SPOKEN POLITICIAN, OPPOSITE OF ERDOGAN. ERDOGAN DEMONIZES AND UTILIZES AND TRACKS DOWN ON DEMOGRAPHICS THAT DON’T VOTE FOR HIM. THIS OPPONENT REACH ACROSS THE AISLE, TRIED TO BREACH THE TRADITIONAL SPLIT. PERHAPS IT WORKED,

HE WAS ABLE TO UNITE OPPOSITION FORCES BUT I THINK HE COULD NOT REALLY GET TO THE 50% MARGIN. IN THIS REGARD, I THINK ERDOGAN PLAYED A MASTERFUL GAIN. THE PARTY WAS SUPPORTED BY A PRO-CURTIS FACTION, AND HE — PRO KURDISH FACTION AND HE BRANDED THEM AS TERRORISTS. I THINK SOME VOTERS WERE CONVINCED THAT SUPPORT FOR THIS CANDIDATE MEANT SUPPORT FOR THAT FACTION. JOHN: IF IT GOES TO A RUNOFF AND ERDOGAN WINS, DO YOU THINK HIS ASSAULT ON DEMOCRACY WILL CONTINUE? SONER: I HAVE ARGUED THAT COUNTRIES COULD BE VEGETABLES AND TURKEY IS AN ONION. THERE IS

NO CORE, YOU PEEL IT AND THERE IS NO CORE. TURKEY IS NOT AN AUTOCRACY, NOT A DEMOCRACY, IT IS A DEMOCRACY THAT HAS FALLEN UNDER AN AUTOCRAT. IT IS TRYING TO MAKE A COMEBACK. IF ERDOGAN WINS AGAIN, I THINK TURKEY WILL BECOME A COMPLETE TALKER C. THE REMAINING INSTITUTIONS — A COMPLETE TALKER C. THE REMAINING INSTITUTIONS WILL FALL UNDER HIM. THE RULE OF LAW WILL DISAPPEAR. ERDOGAN WILL BE ANOINTED AS THE COUNTRY’S NEW SULTAN. TURKS WILL FLEE THE COUNTRY, GIVING UP HOPE HE WILL BE VOTED OUT. I THINK TURKEY WILL DISSENT INTO DEEPER AUTOCRACY. JOHN:

THANK YOU VERY MUCH. SONER: MY PLEASURE.