Tropical Depression 9, 5 p.m. advisory for Sept. 23, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ct5J4RwLjZE
CLAIMS, TAKING CARE OF QUICKLY. FIRST AT THIS HOUR, TRACKING TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT HERE IN FLORIDA WITH THE STATE IN THE STORM’S POTENTIAL PATH. GOVERNOR RON DESANTIS, HE’S DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR 24 COUNTIES, INCLUDING THOSE IN OUR VIEWING AREA. WE HAVE LIVE TEAM COVERAGE TONIGHT ON THE STORM’S POTENTIAL THREAT HERE IN FLORIDA AND >> WHAT TO WATCH FOR AS YOU GET YOUR STORM PLAN IN PLACE THAT WE BEGIN WITH. FIRST ALERT, CHIEF METEOROLOGIST STEVE LEGAL. AND THERE’S A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY RIGHT NOW. BUT STILL A STORM WE NEED TO WATCH.
ABSOLUTELY. AND A LIKELY WILL BE A COUPLE A DAY OR 2 BEFORE. WE REALLY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS STORM OF THE LATEST ADVISORY JUST CAME OUT ON THAT TD NUMBER 9. WE ALSO HAVE A NEW TROPICAL STORM. THAT IS HER ME. THAT’S IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC FIONA. STILL A POWERFUL HURRICANE STILL WAY UP THERE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE’RE KEEPING AN EYE ON. >> BUT ALL EYES ON SOUTH IN SOUTH FLORIDA WATCHING NEST. IT’S STILL DISORGANIZED AND STILL PUSHING A LITTLE FARTHER WEST BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM SOUTH TRACKING SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THAT WHAT HAPPENED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN MOVING THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ON SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY AND STRENGTHENING TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE CROSSING CUBA LATE WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE’S THAT TUESDAY, 02:00PM POSITION AS JUST
THAT’S WHY THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS NUDGED THIS TRACK LITTLE FARTHER WEST, WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY GOOD FOR US. FARTHER WEST. IT IS. WE GET TAKEN OUT OF THE STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EARLIER IN THE 11:00AM FORECAST. IT WAS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVER THE FORT MYERS AREA, BUT IT WILL FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH. WE CALL THAT WITH THE WINDSHIELD WIPER EFFECT WHERE THE MODEL RUNS IN ONE CASE WILL SHIFT WELL EAST, WHICH AIDED THIS MORNING AND THEN THEY’LL BACK OFF AND HEAD TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY THEY COME INTO A COMMON CONSENSUS ON WHERE THIS THING
IS HEADED. BUT THERE’S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. OBVIOUSLY, THERE’S A LOOK AT THE MODELS THROUGH THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS. NOW, IF WE HAVE ANY IMPACTS HERE, LIKELY WE’RE GOING TO SEE A TIMELINE WHERE IT STARTS EARLY NEXT DURING TUESDAY WITH THE CURRENT TO TRACK AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND THE CURRENT FORWARD MOTION OF THIS VERY DISORGANIZED, TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WANT TO TOSS IT OVER TO WHAT JAMES WHELAN, WHO IS ALSO WATCHING THIS FOR ME WITH THE LATEST ON THAT KIND OF TIMES WHERE I’VE LONG WHEN WE SHOULD BE EXPECTING SOME OF THAT WIND AND RAIN.
YEAH, THANKS A LOT, STEVE. AND THIS IS ONE OF THE GRAPHICS WE LOOK AT JUST JUST TO MAKE SURE YOU GET YOUR PREPS DONE AND EVERYTHING LIKE THAT WAS THE FIRST TIME THAT WE MAY SEE. >> THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND RIGHT NOW THE THINKING IS FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER TUESDAY AT 08:00AM. NOW THIS IS GOING TO FLUCTUATE A LITTLE BIT SO YOU CAN GIVE OR TAKE MAYBE 8 HOURS OR SO. HERE AS IT MOVES A LITTLE BIT CLOSER IN SOME TIME SLOWS DOWN SOMETIMES AT SPEEDS UP. SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR? WELL,
GETTING INTO A WATCH OR WARNING? WELL, WE COULD GET INTO WITH A WATCH COMES FIRST. THAT’S WHERE YOU’RE GOING TO SEE. FIRST, EITHER A HURRICANE WATCH OR A TROPICAL STORM WATCH DEPENDING ON WHAT WE MAY SEE OVER HERE IN OUR SIDE. I SUSPECT THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA WILL GET UNDER SOME KIND OF WATCH WHAT YOU SHOULD BE DOING THEN IS WELL, THEN THAT’S WHEN YOU DO YOUR STORM PREPS. IF YOU NEED TO PUT UP SHUTTERS, YOU DO THAT. IF IT TAKES YOU A WHILE TO PUT UP SHUTTERS, NOW, YOU SHOULD PROBABLY DO IT
A LITTLE BIT BEFORE THAT. SO KEEP THAT IN MIND, TOO. IT JUST MEANS THE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TO WIDER AREA AFFECTED TO A WARNING IS WHEN WE NARROW IT DOWN AND SAY, OK, THIS IS WHERE WE THINK THAT YOU’RE GOING TO SEE THE HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. YOU NEED TO FINISH UP ON ANY PREPS OUT THERE AND START TO HUNKER DOWN AND THAT’S WITHIN 36 HOURS OF THE ONSET OF THOSE CONDITIONS. AND WE CAN GET ONE THING OUT OF THE WAY RIGHT NOW. YOU DO NOT HAVE TO PUT UP YOUR HURRICANE SHUTTERS, PUT UP
YOUR HURRICANE SHUTTERS WHEN A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED. >> AND WE MAY NEVER SEE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THIS AREA. THERE’S STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM. ARE THIS TO WHAT IS NOW A DEPRESSION AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A STORM? A LOOK AT THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS. SO WHAT ARE THE PROBABILITIES OF SEEING TROPICAL STORM WINDS? THOSE WINDS AT 40 MILES AN HOUR STRONGER WILL BE ABOUT ROUGHLY 30 TO 35% IN OUR AREA. IT’S MUCH HIGHER AROUND KEY WEST, 70% BECAUSE THE STORM TRACK IS JUST TO THE WEST OF KEY WEST. SO THEY’RE
CLSER TO WHERE THAT CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK HURRICANE FORCE WIND PROBABILITY SO THAT 74 MILES AN HOUR STRONGER, THEY’RE LESS THAN 5%. SO A VERY, VERY LOW CHANCE OF THIS POINT OF SEEING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH JACKSONVILLE, A LITTLE HIGHER YOU CAN SEE IN FORT MYERS AND EVEN HIGHER STILL FOR KEY WEST THAT ACTUALLY DROPPED A LITTLE BIT. IT WAS 21% EARLIER BECAUSE THAT STORM TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST. SO IT WORKS IN OUR FAVOR. WELL,
