Colin's Championship Picks: Ravens dethrone Chiefs at home, Lions cover vs. 49ers | NFL | THE HERD

Now, last week, I said– I went 3 and 1. But I said Blazin’ 5 is kind of regular season and first round of the playoffs. And I said after that, there’s just not many games. I didn’t love the Lions last week. I thought they were mostly right. I did think Baltimore would beat Houston by over the spread. I did think Green Bay would give San Francisco trouble. I actually think both of these are very bettable. I think the Chiefs-Ravens line is one of the best lines in the playoffs so far. So here we go. I’m

going to take the Ravens minus 3 and 1/2. I would take them over Kansas City. And there’s certain factors here. First of all, the Ravens have the number-one rushing offense– won’t be totally reliant on Lamar– and the number-one scoring defense. They are the first team in league history to be number one in scoring defense, lead in takeaways and sacks in the same season. NFL history. At home, they averaged 35 a game in eight games and against many playoff-level teams. This is also key. The Ravens defense only allowed 49 snaps against the Texans, fewest by any

team in the round. They are well rested. The Chiefs played 78 snaps against the Bills. Kansas City’s defense, most snaps they had to play in the divisional round. And Lamar Jackson this year, believe it or not, had a higher

completion percentage than Mahomes, had a higher passer rating than Mahomes, more total touchdowns than Mahomes. Because he had a better O-line. He had a better receiving corps. Baltimore is no mirage. Kansas City’s offense, due to the depleted rosters of the Dolphins defense and the Bills defense, is overvalued here. The value is on Baltimore’s side. I feel

strongly about it. 28 to 20, the Ravens win and are clearly the better team. Now we go to the Lions plus 7 and 1/2 at the Niners. I like Detroit, not as much as Baltimore. But I like the line here, the hook, 7 and 1/2. First of all, this team is 22 and 7 in the last 29 games under Dan Campbell. And they’ve played a lot of good teams. It’s the number-one total offense under Ben Johnson, 390 yards a game. In fact, over the last two seasons, no quarterback has had a better touchdown-to-interception ratio in

the league than Jared Goff, 59 to 19. Why? Weapons, strong run game, brilliant OC, top O-line. None of that is a mirage. Their defense, though, is getting to the quarterback. Multiple sacks in eight straight games. And the Niners O-line on the right side is vulnerable. Deebo Samuel, if he plays– and I think he will– I’m going to take the Niners. But I want you to hear this. Remember, players always tell us there’s the preseason intensity, the regular-season intensity, and then playoff intensity. Brock Purdy is not playing well. His last three games, 79 passer rating, 3

TDs, and 4 picks. He is the least-talented quarterback by a long shot. And the Niners roster– again, if Deebo plays at home, San Francisco has proven to be able to put up big numbers. But I think the side is Detroit. 34 to 27 or 28, I’m going to take Detroit to cover. I think Detroit also tends to be pretty good scripted early, staying in games. Brock Purdy trailing or in close games, not the same quarterback. So I think the Ravens side is a very strong play. The Lions side is not as strong a side. But

when they give you the hook, take it, 7 and 1/2. I’ll take the Lions to lose but cover.