CPI numbers show rent growth accelerating, while real-time figures reflect easing

THE EVEN FRESHER DATA. >> HEY, TY YEAH, THE CPI NUMBERS STILL SHOW RENT GROWTH ACCELERATING BUT THOSE NUMBERS ARE LAGGING BY SEVERAL MONTHS DUE TO THE WAY THE BLS CALCULATES MORE RECENT REPORTS SHOW RENT GROWTH EASING SIGNIFICANTLY. RENT IN SEPTEMBER COOLED TO THE SLOWEST ANNUAL PACE IN 16 MONTHS THAT ACCORDING TO REALTOR.COM. UP 7.8% FROM SEPTEMBER OF LAST YEAR IT ALSO POSTED ITS SECOND MONTH OVER MONTH DECLINE IN EIGHT MONTHS, DOWN FURTHER FROM THE JULY PEAK. THAT SAID, RENT IS STILL RISING AT TWICE THE PACE IT WAS IN MARCH OF 2020 WHEN THE PANDEMIC STARTED.

REDFIN IS ALSO SHOWING A SIMILAR SLOWDOWN AND NOTES THE RECORD HIGH NUMBER OF APARTMENTS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION ALL THAT NEW SUPPLY COULD COOL RENTS FURTHER. THIS COMES AFTER A REPORT LAST WEEK SHOWING APARTMENT DEMAND HAS EVAPORATED IN MUCH OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO A FREEZE IN HOUSEHOLD FORMATION. INFLATION MAY BE KEEPING NEW RENTERS FROM BEING ABLE TO AFFORD TO MOVE OUT ON THEIR OWN. THE THIRD QUARTER IS HISTORICALLY A SEASONALLY STRONG LEASING PERIOD, BUT DEMAND FELL THIS YEAR. THAT’S THE FIRST TIME IT’S SEEN A THIRD QUARTER DROP IN THE 30 YEARS IT HAS BEEN TRACKING

APARTMENTS AND FINALLY, SINGLE FAMILY RENTS ARE ALSO COMING DOWN OFF THEIR RECORD HIGHS FROM LAST APRIL THEY’RE STILL RISING MORE THAN APARTMENT RENTS BECAUSE THERE’S SO MUCH DEMAND

FOR SINGLE FAMILY RENTALS AND NOT AS MUCH SUPPLY >> QUICK QUESTION. NUMBER ONE, THIS IS A POINT THAT JEREMY SIEGEL MADE WITH SCOTT ABOUT AN HOUR AGO, THAT THE FED’S NUMBERS ON RENTS ARE SO BACKWARD LOOKING, NOT AS FRESH AS THE NUMBERS YOU JUST GAVE US. WHY DOESN’T THE FED LOOK AT THESE NEWER NUMBERS? >> ASK THE FED I CAN’T ANSWER THAT QUESTION BUT LOOK, WE DO HAVE

THE LATEST DATA THAT’S WHY WE’RE HERE. WE HAVE TO TAKE SOME OF THESE GOVERNMENT NUMBERS INTO ACCOUNT WHEN WE’RE LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE. BECAUSE WE ARE GETTING NEWER DATA FROM OTHER SOURCES. >> LET’S TALK ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES. WHERE ARE THEY NOW, WHERE ARE THEY HEADED? >> WE’RE OVER 7% THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE EXPECTATION WHEN WE SAW BOND YIELDS GO UP SO HIGH THIS MORNING, WE THOUGHT THEY WERE GOING TO BE MUCH HIGHER TODAY. THEY DID NOT RISE AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT, BUT THEY’RE STILL WELL OVER 7% AND IT DOESN’T LOOK LIKE

WE’RE COMING BACK DOWN WE HAD SEEN MORTGAGE RATES COME DOWN I