The Open Championship DFS Preview |
foreign just 12 hours before the fourth and final major of the PGA season as always I’m your host John joined today first up by the model Maniac on Twitter you may also known as the host of The Back Nine bets podcast it is none other than Byron Linda Q Bayern are you ready for this week to happen I’m ready for it to happen I don’t know if I’m ready for the week but we are hanging on by a thread getting it together going through the motions and off we go we’ll we’ll have a good one
the other person so we can be a trio is of course PGA splits 101 himself TV Superstar it is the great Ron Kloss Ron how are you feeling ahead of this week and Royal Liverpool Club yeah what a great tournament we have ahead of us the strongest field all year the unpredictability of a lynx course a little bit of windy and wet weather conditions mixed in you know taking naps in the middle of the day so you can kind of stay up all night watching the action this is the best Major in my opinion so
really looking forward to getting into it here before we begin a quick reminder of what is happening on the site for everyone since lineup blocks and contest locks are less than 12
for everyone and by entering the betfriskoff pool at Splash Sports you can then have a chance to win money at the top it is a 10 entry you are playing against 200 other entrants and the pool is still open and available to everyone even if you don’t have Twitter you can go to splashports.com scroll to that fifth Tournament entry and you will see it there for everyone the bench press got pool that we will all be playing in of course this is Ryan Noonan’s selection with tier two and Brooks Kafka who we will talk about
just a funny little joke here but nonetheless that’s what’s happening two ways to play this we will be talking about DFS today but the pool and tier selection is what all of us will be doing behind the scenes at well with our friends at Splash Sports so get in on that Ron let’s go ahead and start now with your preview of this course considering it is another link style here the fairways are thin we will be looking at Bunker play approach play as well so your overall thoughts on this course and what we’re looking for
for DFS this week so it looks like just starting off with the weather here looks like we’ll have kind of consistent 15 mile per hour winds throughout you know a bunch of rain on Saturday early reports have the course being very scorable thanks to a couple of inches of recent rainfall um you know during the last three weeks it’s been pretty damp over there actually the course is green multiple players including Michael Kim who again was just on Twitter a great analysis of how the course is playing said you know he could see a 64
tomorrow like it’s going to be really soft especially you know for the opening round so you know kind of the complete opposite going back to you know 2006 when you know when the course was all brown and you know tiger won without hitting a driver or one driver the entire tournament so you know this week you know Lynx golf especially at Liverpool is all about avoiding the bunkers and we’ve heard player after player say that this week uh the pot bunkers that are surrounding the fairways and the greens you know can be anywhere from a
half shot to a full shot penalty you have this full you know foot deep Fescue just five yards off the Fairway and turn a lot of bounds on two holes and then you have out of bounds on six holes all together off the tee so pretty much staying in the Fairway is going to be Paramount this week and since the course is playing softer you know that kind of also means it’s going to play a little bit longer so I think you have some people who are kind of ignoring distance a little too much I
think distance is going to be important this week as well so kind of looking at total drivers of the ball and of course like you said John approach is always going to be key you know these greens are kind of smaller for Lynx courses uh you know they’re under 6 500 yards and of course you have all these danger areas surrounding the greens where you know your short game is going to get tested as well and then all the greens you have slow green speeds you know running around 10 and a half on the stent
meter so you know again looking at T the green players I think you can have some bad Putters have success this week because the greens are slower but it’ll be really interesting to uh to get into here Byron what else will we be looking at ahead of building lineups for this major I’m nothing else I think Ron nailed it I like everything you said there you didn’t have too much else to add outside of the fact that I’m really leaning on a distance this week I think that’s I saw a tweet of of Rory Carrier
Drive 290 yards into the wind and it flew right over the top of the bunker so it was offline and if you didn’t have that extra yardage it was in the bunker and that was pretty much a shot gonna go to waste so I think it’s going to be key to have some yardage in on you in your pocket what also makes this one unique is that DraftKings suddenly change their pricing out of nowhere and the way you can construct lineups because as we start here at the top Scotty Scheffler is 12-5 so one of
the most expensive golfer the most expensive golfer all season long and then as you’ll notice when we get to the bottom the stone minimum price dropped from 6K to 5500 this week so a lot of strategy we will discuss along the way as well but let’s start here because as you can see on the screen Scotty shuffler 12.5 Rory 11-9 600 cheaper John ROM 11 2 cam Smith 10-7 Brooks Kaka 10-4 Xander schoffley 10-1 and Victor hovland 10K flat Ron let’s start with you is there a reason to face Scotty Scheffler given that he costs
so much more and then creates complicated construction for your lineups this tournament absolutely not um very strong feelings about this I think I think there is enough and I think Byron will agree with me there’s enough players I mean we usually we usually trash the 6K range there’s guys down there there’s link Specialists down there there’s guys I’m personally very comfortable playing this week I’m not talking about like five six guys but there’s guys that you know I feel strongly about down there as well so I also think you have a kind of an AK
range if you get into that lower AK range that we’ll get into with you know Tony Fino and Justin Rose and like you could play Shuffle very easily and pair them with a couple of those guys you know mixing some lower range guys and I think you could feel very comfortable about it so I know some people may feel the opposite but um when you just look at what shuffler is doing historically like seven consecutive top fives 19 straight top twelves you know he’s on Pace for the low scoring average since Tiger Woods in 2009
the most Strokes gained per round since Woods in the same year the lowest bogey rate since Tiger Woods in 2000 like the amazing thing is he’s accomplished all these lofty numbers while he’s struggled so heavily with the Putter and I think again slower greens this week might help them in that area just you know he looks he still missed him last week at the Scottish um and even if you look at his Lynx history you know it’s quite short he only has 22 career rounds on Link’s courses but he still ranks eighth overall in the
world gaining 1.85 Strokes per round you know on these types of courses so um I’m just all in on shuffle this week Byron before we dive into the rest of these plays in the five digit range any other thoughts on Game Theory and what you think the field will be doing with a 12-5 Scheffler yeah I think in in roster construction I think Scotty will find him find his way into a lot more multi-entry type Contest 20 entry Max 150 Max because that affords you the opportunity to kind of filter through those cheaper 5K 6K
guys in if you want to play Ball Z VFS and put Scotty chefley into a single entry I think that ownership will definitely decrease in a single entry because the the amount of good golfers you’re going to be finding in the other five names for a single lineup that you may only be playing for that week people will want to actually click on better names down the board so it depends how you want to handle your risk this week with Scotty okay in that case then Byron with that strategy in mind how else do you
feel about the rest of this tier I feel extremely strong about Rory this week I’m I’m kind of putting most of my eggs in that Rory basket I took a peek at the last 12 rounds of ball striking and actually Rory has gained over he’s gained half a stroke more than Scotty over those 12 rounds and we know Rory can actually fight better than Scotty too so he’s played here before he won yeah the last time the only Open Championship he’s ever won was at this golf course he’s just coming off a win in Scotland
everything is trending in the right direction he’s 600 cheaper so that really helps you get away from one or two you know guys in that 5K 6K range that you might not necessarily want to put in your lineups so I don’t mind Rory at all and then just from a scoring perspective cam Smith makes so many birdies uh I can’t you know see why you wouldn’t want to keep him in any of your lineups and then Brooks in a major is just incredible so those are the guys that I’m kind of leaning on um I
also do like Victor so if the I’m going to have like 50 Rory and then the rest of the other 50 of the lineups are going to be these other dudes that I’m going to try and stack together if possible we talked about it on our Rainmaker show which is free for everyone to look into on the best first off YouTube last night and I’m carrying it over here because not only do I think Victor hoblin is a cheap price and card to buy on DraftKings for rainmakers I’m giving them outright equity and I think
he’s one of the best plays Ron in the 10K range at that flat price just because of his recent form surging perfect in my opinion for this course the last three months eighth among this field and strokes gains off the T sixth in proximity to the hole on approach shots and Fifth and putting from 10 to 15 feet without a single miscut this calendar year so overall hoblin is someone I definitely want to personally hone in on yeah I agree with you um I think Victor has developed the necessary Scar Tissue kind of in recent
Majors you know was in the mix last year at the open kind of fell apart on Sunday I think his win at the memorial pretty much showed that he can go head-to-head with the best in the world and come out on top um you know we’ve seen so much about the Improvement in his short game we’ve still seen him struggle here and there a few times but just watching him practice you know there’s some pretty good videos at the open uh has put out I’m just showing him hitting all kinds of shots around the greens
from the bunkers you know you know he’s putting the work in so I feel much more comfortable with that 10K price um in this event with them this week you know and of course with all the dangers surrounding the fairways I think his total driving skills off the tee including his distance you know like Byron talked about is going to allow him to separate from the field and so I’m really looking forward to seeing what he can do this week you know I’m seeing maybe 13 14 ownership right now of course I think he might
become a little more popular as we get further into the evening but really loving this week um I think you you can’t look past Brooks I think I think that the last U.S open you know he was kind of coming off that win at the PGA I don’t think he was at his best you know I think he kind of sees you know last major of the year you know and he does when you look at the numbers you know he raises his Baseline on links courses by over one stroke per round so people forget
that early in his career he played a ton on these Coastal courses in Europe you know before he became a full member on the PGA tour and so you know he has the prowess off the T he has the consistency and upside and and basically he’s got that killer approach that we all know about in major so I think you know he’s another good play um and then I’ll drop down a little bit here to um you know Xander I know Xander some people are you know frowning on him a little bit but when you
go back you know the last three months 12 months two years he’s a consistent top five player in the world you know not only is he one of the best all-around players with every shot in the bag but he consistently shows up at these major events and of course he’s never won one but you know here at the open he’s got you know four straight top 25s he’s got a runner-up in 2018 um and so even last last week at the Scottish open he finished 42nd that was his worst finish of the entire calendar year
so you know it’s just a matter that he can just get over that major hump on the opposite end of that Spectrum for these golfers Byron I know we’re also trying to talk people off of playing some of these expensive plays especially if they’re trying to get off of Scott Scheffler so any Fades you’re emphasizing in this tier yeah can I say Scotty chefler does that count let’s hear it yeah I think he he literally at this price has to win Ron wouldn’t you say so like yeah and just I’ve been waiting for this putter
to show up and it’s stuck waiting for a Harry Potter midnight bus to show up it’s just you’ve read about it you’ve heard about it but it just never appears and um I don’t think at this price I’m willing to go there Ron what about your fades in this tier so I know he’s a pretty popular fade but you know cam Smith um at 10 7. just the fact that how much off the team means this you know matters this week um you know I kind of looked last night at off the T on other
tough courses I kind of try to look at courses that have a really high missed Fairway penalty which also have a lot of bunkers that are really tough to hit up out of from the Fairway and you know just accumulating those courses together you know he was one of the worst players in this field losing um almost um you know 0.30 Strokes off the tee per round on those courses so you know I just think if you look at the courses he has success at like even St Andrews last year you know Kapalua Augusta these
are wide open Fairways where there’s no penalty if you spray it and so I just think he’s going to have a real tough challenge here now if you if you want to talk about from Fairway to Green he might be the best player three player in the world from ferry to Green but I just think with off the team meeting so much um I can’t I can’t play him at that high of a price and that those stats of course can not only be found in the Bedford scoff models but also via your Tweet uh
with all of these Strokes gains off the tee for those missed Fairway penalties that we are trying to show right now but I’m done biting time okay moving on to the next tier who’s your fade thanks anyways we tried Dan um oh I don’t really have a strong fade in this range I honestly I don’t want to go against Ron but I’m siding with you Byron Justin the price for Scotty shuffler which I understand could come back and bite me but having tried to build lineups with both Victor and Scheffler and still have someone that
I’m confident in the 8ks like we’ll get there but Bryson and Tony Fino um scheffler’s a tough squeeze for me a really tough one so I’m still debating I have 12 hours to do so if I’m confident enough to go into these you know high-stakes single entries without Scotty sheffler do I have that kind of courage in my heart and I don’t know I’m still debating it so right now it is Scotty shuffler even though I do understand the win Equity is clearly very high for him let’s go on to the 9k range and Patrick
Canley at the top at 99 Ricky Fowler nine eight Jordan Spieth nine seven calling more call 196 Matt Fitzpatrick nine five Tyrrell Hatton 9-4 Tommy Fleetwood nine three tj92 back in our lives Shane Lowry 9-1 and even K 9k cam young uh I know there are quite a few players that people believe can win from this tier so Ron why don’t you get us started yeah so I’ll go through this quickly but Ricky Fowler I think the pressure is off with his win in Detroit kind of under his belts you know a lot of people
who are just getting into golf more recently kind of don’t really know that he was he was the runner up here at boy Lake to Rory in 2014. you know he had a couple interviews this week amidst the loving Links Golf and when you look at his history at the open you know he’s made 10 of 11 Cuts he’s got three top sixes and when you look at the last six months you know he’s the sixth best player in the world um so I really think he can carry that momentum forward this week um Jordan
Spieth is really interesting to me this week I know he’s coming in like seven percent ownership and I know he’s kind of in one of those ruts where he just has not been performing well over the last couple of months actually but when you dig deep into his past history here at the open I just think links courses just bring him to life no matter what state his game is in you know his track record is really unbelievable he’s got the most total stroke skin in the world um at uh open venues with a huge
margin separating himself with Rory McIlroy who’s second on that list but you know speech has you know five top tens here average finish position is 13th he’s never come close to missing a cut and nine starts um and so I think his creativity his touch around the greens shot making skills all those things are going to separate him on you know of course like Royal Liverpool here where it’s going to demand those skills and so you know even even the links thing when you look you know he’s raised his Baseline by one and a half
Strokes per round on Link’s courses so you know even with the Forum you know he’s a guy that I’m going to be playing confidently I’m going to try to get a lot of Leverage you know if he’s seven percent you know I might go as high as 20 um so that’s how strongly I feel about him this week um I think going down a little bit I know fleetwood’s getting up there and uh ownership but again he’s he’s one of the good chalk players this week I think he’s underpriced for how he’s been playing you
know when you look at his last three links events fourth at the Scottish fourth at the U.S open and then sixth at the Scottish last year so you know kind of in the midst of the best stretch of his career um doesn’t have a weakness in his game really I think he makes a great you know second player in your lineup you know allows you to fit you know 9 300 you know some more guys down the board and I’ll finish up the 9k range for me I think Cameron young is a tremendous leverage play
coming in right around six percent ownership again the guy finished second at the open last year you know he showed Signs of Life at the John Deere finishing six he gained three Strokes putting so that was really good to see switch back to his old ball you know that he used last year here at the open you know Paul tesorius caddy you know thinks that was huge for him um and so uh just looking at him overall you know I think his driver will be a weapon here and when you look at that list I
posted on on tough off the T courses you know he’s the second best on there gaining you know 0.85 Strokes off the tee on those really piano courses so I really like Cameron Young At This range Byron your thoughts on the 9ks yeah love Jordan Spieth you know if they’re gonna if the Field’s gonna give us a seven percent speed at a at a venue like this with a track record like this I mean it’s so long and beautiful it’s just impossible to pass up right now so I’m in full agreement with you there on
on speed I’m in full agreement with you on Cameron young that distance he’s got Rory distance off the tee those downwind bunker shots are gonna he’s gonna be flying those traps they’re gonna the pharaoh’s gonna be so much wider for him just by eliminating those part bunkers because he doesn’t have to worry about the ball bouncing into them someone that I’m not gonna be a fan of this week is Tommy Fleetwood and the reason I say this is right before this pod I got home and tried to microwave a little meatball situation and I thought
I had six minutes to get it done it’s like okay I can do this I can get these meatballs in here eat these meatballs before the show and next thing I look and it’s one minute to go my meatballs are still way too hard to eat and everything just went super fast and now my meatballs are still sitting in the microwave I think that’s like how Tommy feet would handles a Sunday round Under Pressure like the meatballs are just too hot he just gets home and he’s sitting there and wondering why am I meatballs still
in the microwave what happened where did that wind go like why am I not winning tournaments so he’s going to eject at some point this week and then soar up a leaderboard and finish inside the top ten that’s just what you’re going to be getting I need a win Equity player in this range and he ain’t that guy at this ownership so I’m out on him big time I’ll play Maddie Fitz who’s been telling everybody uh he’s going to be playing badly this week and we’ve seen calamari cow do that and then go and win
the open so there’s multiple leverage opportunities in this 9k range as Byron’s lunch habits become a weekly segment on this show Ron who are you fading in this tier yeah so for me um if you look at and I know this is kind of a broken record for me but um Colin murakawa again his price is a little more reasonable this week um but again when you’re looking at 14 15 with the course potentially flying longer you know with the softer conditions I mean this is going to be really treacherous around the greens okay so
that’s kind of again his main weakness and so um can he can he gain enough Strokes ball striking to make up for the short game again I don’t know if I want to take that chance when I’ve got two players right above him and following spief that I’m supremely confident in and so I mean even I haven’t even talked about Patrick Hanley who you know he kind of you know missing those cut last week you don’t know what to expect from him but he can’t wait has been very very unconsistent at majors at least finishing
the top 15 with his typical back door um Sunday’s there but yeah I just can’t go markawa at 9 600. Byron for me it would be Dustin Johnson uh I want to take the long-term approach with Dustin Johnson because remember just last month we were here and we had a little debate because Dustin Johnson cost 8 200 on DraftKings for the U.S open and I was just pissed off about the price he had been playing terribly but I just thought it was a bad price for a player who was previously great in majors and he
finished T10 at that tournament and now we have recency bias coming into effect and an increased price so now just for DFS for leverage purposes I’m backing off and saying okay well this guy long term the last 50 rounds is still 109th in this field in Strokes game putting and although his Strokes gained off the tee have increased of late long term last 50 rounds still 58th so maybe the distance does help them out here maybe it will negate everything else but long term at least the play has still been poor so I want to
bet against what’s happened in the last month do you think that’s wise yes I think so too I’m right on board with you with DJ I don’t I don’t think he’s got it anymore at least at the increased price that is my that is my sole argument if he was 8200 I’d probably be a donkey and just arguing to play him now but that’s the way DFS Works moving on to the 8ks lots of options here but we will go ahead and get into it at eight nine with Hideki Matsuyama Bryson dechambeau88 Windham Clark eight
seven Justin Thomas eight six Sam Burns eight five Max Homa eight four some GM 8-3 Tony finaulate two Tom Kim 8-1 Justin Rose flat 8K Ron I know you’ve already touched on Justin Rose in particular being one of your favorite plays in this range yeah this is such an interesting range this week because you have so many guys in here who have different weaknesses and that when you look at ownership it just looks like nobody really wants to play many of these guys and I kind of agree with that but you know you know there’s
there’s at least a couple players in here that are going to pop and they’re you know could be in winning lineups and so I think it’s really important we kind of dig deep and kind of parse that out but for me personally you know I may have bits and pieces here and there of a Wyndham Clark of Justin Thomas but for the most part I’m dropping all the way down to the bottom half of the a case here um I think Sam Burns is interesting you know he played very well to Scottish except for that
one hole um you know he’s an elite punter he’s kind of started to get more comfortable in these kind of major events you know he’s made the cut in five of those last six majors he has the upside to win um I think Max Homa is someone who we all know um you know the major issues with him as far as how he struggles but you know when you just look at Link’s golf you know finishing 12th last week at the Scottish he’s clearly embraced this this style of play you know he has talked openly
about how he loves these historic horses I mean the more he plays I think the more he’s going to continue to get better and so you know I think at nine percent I think his talents um his boss striking even though he did struggle a little bit last week um you know I like him at 8 400. my favorite two players are down here though with Tony Fino you know female as I guess when you look at the lynx data that I posted um you know he’s the second best player in the world on Link’s
course was going back to 2014. it was gaining an average of 2.07 Strokes per round which is you know second only to speed and so very similar to Jordan you know he’s also got the fifth best Strokes on average in open championships and so um you know he’s never finished outside the top 28 here at the open um and again there’s a lot of comparisons to speed because when you look he’s also struggled kind of over these past two months but seems like he has the ability to just turn it on you know when he
gets across the pond and so you know I really love Fina this week I think just his upside is enormous and then um Justin Rose is is a guy who I think some people may have a little sour taste just you know missing the cut last week but again when you go back to the 2014 open here at boy Lake you know he finished fifth um this course really suits his game you know especially off the tee very well and there’s not many people that can beat his his open resume as well you know he’s
got six straight top 22s here um he’s a very uh very good Lynx player so I really like Fino and Rose and they’re going to be kind of the cornerstones of a lot of millennials I too am high in phenyl basically what we’re hoping is that he’s playing the exact same way in all aspects of his game except for putting like we’re hoping the long-term putting he’s proven is better than what we’ve seen the last two months since since May he’s lost over half a stroke gain and putting in that time uh Byron what about
you in the eight case well since you’re speaking about Tony are we cool doing that if he’s 15 owned like is that does that interest you guys though like that’s the that’s the concern for me like we’re going to a guy that’s got speeds like upside but at Double the ownership that’s interesting so I’ll let you guys ponder over that while I go to some other guys I’m a big fan of in this range and one of them is Windham Clark I think that he is worthy of the ownership he might be getting he’s got
incredible length of the tee and most aspects of his game are just so well-rounded he’s such a magician around the greens he’s a really good Putter and at times he can be one of the best iron players in the world so we’re going to get all of that stuff oh and he’s also the US Open champ so like he’s 8 700 playing some great golf I think he’s won like five of his last two of his last six tournaments and things are looking great Bryson’s getting zero ownership yeah he’s like six percent and I think
he’s got the ability to also just pound drivers over these pipe bunkers on the fairways and then we deal with the rest of that stuff after that you know I I can imagine him just absolutely clumsying himself around these greens but it does kind of ownership he only has to be in like 10 of your lineups to get leverage on the field which I’m totally fine with he’s a major winner in the past so I’m I’m fine we’re rostering him and then I’ll go to Justin Rose again I I want to say he scorned me
at the US Open where I had him in like a third or half my lineups and then that was pretty much my DFS week done before Thursday morning I’m willing to let him redeem himself you know every rose has its thorn he’s going to pluck a few out from our sides this week and redeem himself at eight thousand dollars flat in rows just like Fitzpatrick we are getting that recency bias with a miscut even those two were those were two of our favorite plays last week they they were in my opinion appropriately deemed as potential
winners in that tournament despite missing the cut um so yes I don’t mind going back to either here Ron what about your fade here yeah Sanjay would be too easy to say uh just because I want to see it from him and he’s really been bad on Link’s courses um for me I think Wendell Clark um might not be someone I completely fade but when you look at you know one of the things he still struggles with from time to time is just being very erratic off the tee I mean we saw that at the
at the U.S open where all that room off the Fairway you know so he’s a guy who probably would be someone you know when he’s getting up to 11 12 ownership that I would uh probably be fading more than I’ll play and maybe it’s easy to say I know we’ve tried to string him along recently but I don’t want any part of Justin Thomas in these 8ks uh it’s really the putting that he continues lacking although off the tee has been a bit of a concern as well but the putting just doesn’t really seem to
be coming around still 86 in Strokes gain and putting even recently over the last 24 rounds 114 in the last 50 if you want to go long term so maybe slight improvements here but overall it just doesn’t seem to be happening at the end of the season for Justin Thomas so unless Ron you would like to tell me uh that this seems like a course he can string birdies along especially since it’s slower greens otherwise I don’t want any part of it yeah I mean if you’re playing 150 lineups you know I I can see
maybe playing him at 10 just to try to get double the field you know just in case um but yeah if you’re playing single entries three max I don’t think you can plan this week Bryson to Shambo also want to touch on of course at 800. I don’t know what you see I don’t know what you have in ownership buy room right now for Bryson but just the fact that we have six consecutive t20s um hasn’t lost Strokes off the tee you’re on approach now since the mass since the PGA Championship um has just played
so much better really since April in the Masters since he slimmed down everything’s coming together and if we’re talking about players who can drive the ball to negate and cancel out those bunkers throughout then of course Bryson should be deemed one of the better players here on this field yeah I think he’s sitting around about 60 percent right now which oh six figures I think is ideal you know that’s when you go to guys like this High upside low risk guys if we can get like speed cam young and Shambo all together less than 18
uh this is the trio we formed last week together when we formed the core of podrig Bobby Mack and fox like that was the core we wanted and they all succeeded so I think we’re cooking with gas we’re all forming a great Trio here together at the end of the season moving on though let’s cut the 7ks in half because now we’re getting into the players people have to play if they want to put Scheffler and Brooks Scheffler and hovland into their lineup and so people will probably need a lot of these golfers so let’s
start at the top Adam Scott I know you’re very high on a Byron Taylor Gooch at 7-8 Jason day who was once a 9k golfer at 7-8 making his return here minmu Lee I expect to be a popular option at 7-7 Corey Connor 7-7 Keegan Bradley 7-6 Patrick Reed when you talk about excellent Bunker play at 7-6 walking even 7-5 and sahity Gala 7-5 Byron go ahead and get us started with Adam Scott and whoever else you like in this tier yeah Adam for an old dog I think we discussed it last night he can
absolutely get it out there and he’s also looking like right underneath Justin Rose in that celery to I think Rosie’s going to be speaking a bit of ownership from him and he’s looking at five six percent right now too for Adam and he’s historically pretty solid in Mages he’s pretty solid on these you know open courses for a guy that’s 7 900 I’ll take that and again he needs to he needs to play well and I think he’s going to so hopefully he can do that for us and get that fired up if we’re looking
and staying with that bombers narrative which I’m going to be rolling with this week is menu Lee uh he’s been playing Great Golf recently firing scores that should never exist with a Strokes gained approach over the last 24 rounds of 111th but yet yeah we always gained the 16th most Strokes in in the last 24 rounds so he just gets it done he’s a scorer he’s a golfer and he’s got extreme distance off the tee so if he needs to hit a two iron sting off the T he can and if he needs to carry
bunkers he can definitely do that too love love him and then I’ll just start off with sayeth tagala being a failure because he hits a fade that’s going to find him in some serious trouble this week at this venue his driver is just not equipped to handle this kind of golf course Ron what about you for these high 7ks yeah this is another range that I’m I’m not too fond of um I’ve got three plays here that I do some alike I’m completely agree on Adam Scott um he’s a guy that that you know I
kind of had his age he lives for these Majors you know I think he kind of viewed last week um even though he did play well on Friday with the 67 you know kind of viewed last week as a warm-up event so you know his consistency overall um really good on Links Golf and he’s another guy you know like a Ricky Fowler who played here in 2014. he was in contention the whole time um until we kind of struggled a little bit on Sunday um so I liked him um Corey Connors is another guy who’s
who’s getting up there in ownership which I don’t like uh but one thing I am doing this week relating to chalk is if a guy is strong off the tee here you know I’m not really mining the ownership as much because of how important it is and he’s the second best overall player off the teeth according to my numbers here he’s the most accurate driver in the field and he has enough length and long iron skills to kind of set himself up very nicely on the greens this week you know and when you look at
his his open history you know he was 28th last year at St Andrews he was 15th at St George’s so show kind of an affinity um and even um at a Scottish open last week you know I think he had the best round um on Sunday when the conditions were just you know really bad the wind the rain I think he was something like five under so kind of showing that he can play in all types of conditions which I like um and then I think Patrick Reed just always eternally if it’s a major you
play Patrick Reed you know he’s made the cut and set him straight you know I think similar to Jordan Spieth at a course like this um where he can use his short game his creativity around the greens you know not the best off the tee not the best on approach but he just seems to always come up with a magic to scramble and save himself and make a 50-foot birdie putt you know when he needs one so I just kind of think that pedigree that he’s proven time and time again is really kind of safe
play you know I wouldn’t say I expect him to you know finish top 10 or anything but again you don’t need that at 7 600. um my fade in this range is going to be Jason day you know ever since he won at you know Craig Ranch at the Byron Nelson he’s just looked pretty bad approach game has been awful and so you know I think he’s taken jeez I think he last played three weeks ago at The Travelers and so you know I just I just not not comfortable at all back in him here
I don’t even have a fade in this range because like you Ron I don’t have many favorite 7K players and that’s a question that even Clinton Ward brings up in the chat the seven to seven point five k range doesn’t have many guys as well with good open history besides Alex norn and Brian Harman both who are about to get to so before I allow Byron to spiel on Brian Harman for this tournament because I know he’s high on him Ron is there any what is the correlation here with course history in terms of what
we’re looking for and are there any guys with good open history in that tier uh yeah I mean I think you have some guys here who just fit the course very well like when you go to a Russell Henley at 7 400 you know he he hasn’t really played well on Link’s courses which is the one concern I have but he started to show some life and Majors he’s got you know two great finishes this year fourth of the Masters 15th at the US Open again we’re looking for accuracy off the tee he’s one of
the most elite players out there you know he’s also very precise with his iron so again should be in a good position to succeed it’s just a matter of for him of the short game you know and and TPC Sawgrass is a course that has been talked about and I do see the correlation with you know another course that’s very tough it’s very penal off the tee you’ve got to Club down on certain holes and he’s got three top twenties at uh TPC sawgrass so he’s real interesting to me I think Cebu Kim is another
guy who could very easily been priced much higher I think his ball striking his overall class I think he has the upside to actually contend this week and what kind of excites me at this course is how strong he is from bunkers and around the greens and of course he’s another guy who won the PLAYERS Championship at TBC Sawgrass and before Byron gets to him just really quick on Brian Harman you know I couldn’t believe the pricing like 7 300 like he’s playing one of the best in the entire world right now you know 12th
at the Scottish 9th in Detroit and I followed him around in Detroit at the rocket mortgage for a while and his irons and his wedge play and even his long irons like it was pinpoint even second runner up at the traveler so this is a pretty amazing price um and he was sixth last year at the open so those three guys would be my my favorite that do kind of fit the course on what we’re looking for yeah no Brian is he’s playing Great Golf right and and he’s not one of these guys that I
think you can almost flip the the bomber narrative on its head when you come to Accurate drivers on the ball because they’re not necessarily the longest so they can hit these drivers out there and be certain to be short of the bunkers anyway so they’re not really losing anything off the tee because they’re short enough that they can just keep hitting driver they’re not going to have to Club down to avoid those bunkers so whereas a guy was like an average driving distance might have to hit a three wood when these guys can hit drivers
so it’s a little bit of an interesting flip there um you don’t have to have everyone in the same box so I do like Brian Harman and like Ron said his iron play is actually really really good especially out of the rough and we could maybe expect a lot of that happening this week so we’ll see what he can get up to a little chalky but I think it’s priced because of and you know like you said you’re getting some good value there and if you’ve been disciplined with your your ownership throughout the the top
of the board yeah you can really play him at this price so a few other guys that I don’t mind mentioning and Adam schink folks is seventh in Strokes gained approach over the last 24 rounds in a field full of Brooks koepka’s and Cameron Smith’s and Roy McElroy’s and Scotty Sheffield is he’s seventh in this field in approach he’s had four top seven finishes in his last six starts yes some of them have been like John Deere Classics and Rocket mortgages but they’re still top sevens top fours you know he’s just playing Great Golf and
I think he’s really going under the radar here so I love Adam shank I’m going to be playing 10 to 15 Adam shank this week so he’s going to be in a lot of my lineups I think I’m going to be very aggressive about him and we’ll see what he can get up to so he’s a first time open participant so I’m a little concerned about that and so is Denny McCarthy who I think is also a great play this week I don’t know how first time is due Ron do you have any stats on
that by chance like how first timers do at the open I think is something I was wishing I investigated prior to this but I think we’re still willing to take a chance on a good golfer playing their first round are you also worried about getting McCarthy maybe getting steamed up and over rostered because that’s what I think may happen like up to the 12 to 15 range Maybe yeah but also at the same time there’s certain guys I’m gonna pick and choose my battles on you know I’m not necessarily playing single entry as much as
you are John so I can work my way around it any McCarthy with a few other you know speechs and things like that he’s just providing too much safety for you at this price point to to not play Denny even though it is his first time I mean he’s finishing inside the top 40 75 of his starts and he’s 7 300 in this field got it you know it’s just it’s too good of a player for that price so I’m willing to go to him pair him up with like a Nick Taylor you know then
all of a sudden you’re sitting at an average of five percent ownership which is totally fine um Nick Taylor’s got some seriously High upside that he can provide there same with Gary Woodland who’s not usually catching as much ownership as we’ve seen in the past which is fine I’m down to take Gary Woodland when he’s low owned too I think Clint was asking about some good open history Alex Morin is one of those guys and he’s starting to pop a little bit lately in form and goes back to an Open Championship where we know he’s
from Europe so you’ll be playing Great Golf and finally Chris Kirk also just you had three Miss Cuts in his last five starts three in a row so the last two have been top 21s I think and he’s back to playing Great Golf prior to that he was on an incredible run of consistency he provides you with some serious safety down here in the 7K flat range any other Fades Ron that you’re eyeing in this low 7K range yeah there’s there’s a bunch of guys down here who just to me have not played enough on
these types of courses or or have like a Chris Kirk and who have struggled but just going to Denny you know I you know some people think he’s underpriced which may be maybe true but again never played at the open has zero links experience also off the t is the weakest part of his game you know and I see ownership in double digits um I’ll pass it on that and when we’re looking at distance and accuracy off the tee all anyone has to do is Google that shot of the 18th Fairway and how close that
out of bounds marker is um within inches of landing at the right Fairway just absolute Insanity so yes just as an accuracy and experience certainly worth prioritizing here okay I don’t even know how we should do this since usually you get to the 6ks and we just have a few handful of guys to toss around but now we have 5500 players too if we’re trying to creep those in so Ron I I guess I’ll just let you get started in the 6ks and there are a lot of them so just take it away all right
I’ll Let’s uh let’s let’s do down to 6 500 here so okay I’ll go through this quick I think Louie oostizen again has not been playing well if you look at his PJ events even before he left for live but he showed another guy who’s kind of come to life you know even if we’re talking live here you know two top sixes recently he has Elite open history you know I think people kind of have forgotten about him he’s just sitting down there at three percent ownership you know he’s in a very interesting play if
you want to get a little bit risky um Romaine langas who I played last week again he’s a guy who DP World Tour you know he’s got six top 25s in his last eight events he’s gaining over one and a half Strokes on the field over his last 36 rounds if you’re looking at DP World Tour stats he’s actually one of the best players off the tee on the DP World Tour which kind of fits here so I think he’s somebody who at one percent kind of a dart throw um going down everybody loves Bobby
McIntyre so I’m not I’m not going to talk much about him he’s got Great Links history and everything and so you know if you’re playing him at 14 you know just make sure you’re not playing obviously other chalky guys but I think Jordan Smith is coming in really under the radar um five percent ownership you know he’s the best ball Striker on the entire DP World Tour um he just gained 6.2 Strokes ball striking at the Scottish in an Elite field he’s actually gained ball striking in 10 and 12 of his last 13 events with
nine top 25s in that same stretch people don’t even know this but he just finished 20th at the U.S open you know he’s an elite links player if you look at his links history so so basically what I’m saying is Jordan Smith checks in every box this week plus he’s under price and he’s on their own so when you look at that um Jordan Smith will be in the core of many of my lineups this week if you just drop down to Alexander Bjork he’s another stalwart on the DP World Tour he’s made every single
cut since September 18th straight 10 of 11 top 30s in his last 11 events he’s one of the best Fairway to Green players in the world uh what he lacks is length off the tee but he is a pretty good long iron player so I think he can kind of make up for that here and then just drop it down a little further I’ll just get to Matthew Jordan here 6 500. yes I’m eating up the hometown home course narrative because the guy has actually played very well lately gaining if you look um six straight
cuts he’s made he’s got four top 22s um and when you look at his links history you know he’s a guy down here and that’s one of the things I’m targeting when I get to this the 6K ranges you know you kind of have some of these links Specialists from the from the DP World Tour and when you look at this week remember it’s top 70 in ties it’s not top 65 so you have a little bit of Wilder room there for some of these some of these guys in this 70 to 80 range who
you know could make the cut and you know a guy like Jordan who he shot 62 here I don’t know if it’s the course record or not but he’s played here more than anyone um and so I don’t know what Byron sees him at I’m saying two percent which I don’t think can be right with everything that’s been talked about him but um 6500 he will be in a lot of miles uh two guys I’m eyeing here one I’m more confident in and that one is Brendan Todd but both guys Brenda Todd and Michael Kim
the other one I think at least our our specialist uh around the green and within an approach like Michael cam is top 12 and proximity on approach shots here uh top 12 among this field also the last 24 rounds and scramble rate and sand safe percentage and so that’s someone I want to bet on same for Bryn and Todd the difference though why I have more confidence in Brenda Todd is Michael Kim’s Link’s course history which Ron according to your stats he’s nearly lost a full stroke gained off the tee at Link’s courses like it’s
been miserable and so how much are you weighing that is that a reason for me to get off Michael Kim just because he’s been so poor at Link’s courses in particular yeah I mean he doesn’t have a ton of sample size either um and some of these stats are from when I mean he had a really low stretch for a couple of years when he was maybe one of the worst players on tour and he’s he’s a guy who’s just almost come back from the dead over the past year like he’s been playing really well
so yeah I’m not I’m not really into him as much just because I think there’s other guys around him um in that 65 you know even if you you know even like Victor Perez at 6600 you know I would play before Michael Kim so I’m not into Kim this week okay well I’ll still play Brenda Todd because off the tee top 10 in this field last 24 rounds and good drive percentage so he’s either hitting the Fairway or he’s saving par if he happens or he’s getting a green in regulation if he’s missing the Fairway
so someone I want to have confidence in even though the distance yes he’s like 150 in the field the Brady Todd’s not hitting the ball miles down but he’s still been accurate so I’ll play him for sure Byron what about you in the high sex case yeah Brandon Todd doesn’t have to worry about driving the ball into the bunker you know I think he’s gonna can’t reach the line he can’t get there at all um all right let’s take a peek here I like Betty horschel this week as a weird random off the off the
cuff play you know if you think about someone that just likes Europe and and England I think he’s got ownership stakes in a certain football team or something so he’s probably going to be playing some passionate Golf out there and he can scramble and just kind of get it get it going there I don’t mind Emiliano Grillo this week at all I think he’s going to be a really nice ball striking kind of a player on this kind of a venue and then I haven’t really spoken about this too much but I’m we ex I’m
at least expecting scores to get around about minus 15 minus 17 this week I don’t know what you guys think but if the wind picks up like keep an eye on the Wind keeping on the weather but Danny willett’s a God be willing to roster if I saw this win start getting a little crazy tonight and we start seeing some things where we can expect the score to be like single digit par range where I think Danny Willard is definitely going to be doing his thing the same with busy you know those are two guys
that would be very good in tough conditions um like like Ron said I’m a big fan of Louis I’m a big fan of Jordan Smith this week and we’ll round it out with some JT Poston love I think he’s a really really impressive player right now he’s playing some good golf and he’s kind of trending in the right direction with the ball striking and can really get it done at 6 500 bucks all right Ron since we cut it in half let’s get to the lower 6ks and what are you thinking all right well my
Thomas Dietrich love um it continues it’s not as strong as it was last week um because I think off the tee he can’t get a little wild at times uh but 6400 to me is still a really good price um now again I’m not gonna go overboard with him but I do think he still has the potential and yes like like Byron corrected me last week you know he’s he shows flashes he has these great rounds and then he just falls apart so completely agree to that but again we’re talking 6 400 here so I’ll
take a top 40 top 30 from Detroit this week um I think Lee Hodges is a guy who’s really going under the radar who’s just been really consistent when you dig into those numbers ball striking even around the greens you know he doesn’t have a lot of links experience but he had a pretty high finish at the Scottish last week so I think he’s a guy like um Henrik Stenson is a guy who’s getting on getting some chatter you know I think his game is another one that’s kind of starting to come around even though
again it’s so hard to tell on the live tour and you know what’s going on there but you know he does have two straight top six finishes um he’s a guy who I always like to Target on links courses because when I ran my modeling and and looked at the Baseline who raises their game the most on links courses he leads the entire world okay he’s gaining 1.62 Strokes above his Baseline on links courses he’s actually a negative player going back to 2014 and he had some really good years he’s actually a negative player on
Parkland type courses so um I also think just playing with the motivation you know he was stripped of his Ryder Cup captaincy um I think he’s gonna really come out this week and he’s even talked about this to the press that he this week means something to him and he’s really motivated to come out here and show that he can still perform so I like Stetson at 6200 and you know there’s a couple other guys here and there I’m not going to get too crazy down here but I think Ben Griffin is is really interesting
at 6K flat you know he finished 25th of Scottish last week another really young guy off the tee a little bit scary but I think if he clubs down I think he does have the long iron play to kind of make up for his lack of distance if he does smartly when he needs to Club down off the tee um but I think his all-around game kind of fits the lynx style here so um he’s a guy and then you and Ferguson of course um when you look at his recent finishes like he’s had a
really good stretch here and he did not slow down at the Scottish last week finishing 12th so he’s another guy I’ll probably have him someone else Byron what about you yeah no I love Ewan Ferguson I think he’s going to be great I love Henrik Stenson Ron I think you know he’s a past open champion and took one away from Phil essentially I think Phil would have won pretty much every other open had Henrik Stenson had you shot what he did in that opened that Henry Stenson played just better than him so a little interesting
situation there another guy that’s 6 300 bucks is Francesca Molinari also a past open Champion he’s going to get him for one percent ownership and then there’s a trio of guys yeah Tom Hoagie Lee Hodges and Taylor Moore all sixty four hundred dollars two of them are are winners on the PGA tour within the last two years so Taylor Moore recently Tom Hoagie last year and we know Tom Hoagie is one of the best iron players when he’s cooking and we’ve seen him I think in the last nine rounds he had like a one round
where he lost minus four strokes putting but the rest of the time he’s gaining over half a stroke putting on average right now for the last eight rounds so he’s actually got the putting working again on these slower surfaces maybe that’s what’s helping or maybe he just figured something out but that was derailing his chances he was just like putting himself out of tournaments and now Tom Hoagies putting better and at 6 400 I think this is the time to pounce on him and he’s a great long iron player so he’ll be pinpointing those things
from Miles Away moving down the border to the 6ks six thousand flat Richard Bland he is under the radar live Guy this is just someone I’ve if you just think about who is motivated to play well that’s been like shunned as a liver he’s one of those guys I think he’ll be a great kind of person to to bounce back yeah Zach Johnson past winner of the Open Championship six thousand dollars flat zero percent owned keita Nakajima if you just take a look at true Strokes gained around the world over the last 24 rounds he’s
sitting 39th so that’s what you’re going to get from keita Nakajima with fifty nine hundred dollars so I have I know nothing else about him other than the fact that he’s done really nicely in Strokes gained and then John The Big Easy Ernie else fifty eight hundred dollars the South African open and he is going to make the cut for us and be our salary saver along with Marcel’s team no one in this field has been better in putting and say and savory than Ernie freaking ills over the last 24 rounds again just like Brandon
Todd he’s gonna drive at 120 yards so he’s going to avoid bunkers and he’s gonna save himself around the green I agree with you I’m absolutely dipping into Ernie ales this week too Ron Ron are you going to yell at us or do you agree hey you guys do what you do that’s the kind way to say you’re both idiots okay since it is a special Ron do you have anyone below 6K that you’re looking into yeah I’ve got one guy and a lot of people are bringing him up Richie Ramsey um you know three
top tens in his last six events you know obviously a DP World Tour guy actually one of the um when you look at his Lynx history now a lot of this goes back to you know 2014 through 2018 but he’s one of the best players out there on links courses he just made the cut at the Scottish open um he’s gaining T to green and an approach when you look at his last 36 European rounds so um you know he’s one of the few guys I will even consider here um I know people are bringing
up Matthew Southgate who is another link specialist so if you’re trying to get really low at 5600 but yeah that’s that’s about it for me down here okay with that being said we talked about our favorite plays and Fades and each tier and the way it sets up this week I think it’s best to force everyone to give their flag plant in each tier so your favorite play at 11 we don’t we don’t include Scotty shepler but your favorite play at 11 10 9 876 you know the Greek numerical output so Byron I’ll start with
you and you can start in the 11 case Rory Rory yes moving on uh I I guess we’ll just all go at one at a time then um how many golfers are in 11k it’s just dude above 10K yeah okay above 10K counts as a tier I’m gonna go Victor hoblin is my favorite yeah um probably agreed probably yeah uh Byron 9ks Jordan Spieth y’all really talked me into Cam young at six percent uh so I think I may be siding with you and saying cam Young yeah I’m going Jordan Spieth too I think seven
percent yeah sign me up I’m still gonna play him my 8ks are Bryson to Shambo especially if we’re expecting to get him to five to eight percent single digits I I want to be overweight on the field for sure and multi-entry and everything uh what about you Byron I like Bryson um but I’ll do Windham clock as my flag plant Ron and I will go Justin Rose okay and I still like Tony fee now but not my flight plan in the sevens again I genuinely just don’t have many uh Adam Scott is actually highest in
my model Russell Henley is the one I’d probably lean on most for his recent approach play so I will just try to save everyone money and say Russell Henley what about you Ron I’m doing Brian Harman I’m coming right back to him I just think he’s mispriced I know he’s you know double digits but I just don’t think you can pass up his recent form combined with his kind of ability on these types of courses I’m gonna say Adam Shank okay and finally in the sixth case I will go Brendan Todd um I think just
genuinely his approach Play and play around the green will really help us out here in this course what about you Byron Tom Hoagie 6400. we need to cross our fingers off the T but the approach play for Hoagie it seems like the long irons are slowly coming back and rounding into vintage form what about you Ron yeah so I think I think Robert McIntyre is clearly the best Talent the most talented player down here but for me Jordan Smith all day 6 800. and again just like last week when pivoting off of these plays yeah
Bobby Mack man he could close at 18 he’s gonna he’s going to get steamed over the next few hours I know for a fact so I would just be really wary of his ownership especially after his highlighted play at the Scottish open last week and to close it out Byron your favorite bet for this major you’re not gonna ask me I fed my flag plants in the 5K range well there’s only we only talked about two golfers so everyone knows the only two players were all playing in that 5K range my favorite bit is Zander
schoffley at bit MGM times paid in full top 20 plus 105. so guys he finished inside the top 20 71 percent of the time and we’re getting plus money with ties playing for in a major I mean what are we doing now what about you Ron yeah I think um I think Justin Rose plus 130 for a top 30. I think that’s a really good value with that being said Byron tell everyone where they can find the rest of your work before lineup block and I believe 11 no 12 35 Eastern is that what it
is 135 135 okay again we had this discussion behind the scenes I’m so bad with time zones I work at every time zone so all right 1 35 a.m Eastern where can they find your work before then at the model Maniac every single bit of content I’ve done all the million podcasts all the Articles all the all the photoshops that all at the model Maniac that rotoborder.com step buffets out there and I’m giving away 69 folks if you go and retweet my pin tweet and comment on my YouTube video it’s the 69th episode of back
nine bits 69 in your pocket if you just go do those two things so please help a brother out go to do those two things back nine bets podcast on YouTube Ron what about everything else you have coming out before 1 35 a.m Eastern yeah and if you’re not following Byron I don’t even know what you’re doing with your life so go follow that man um now we’ve got um already DFS DraftKings ownership has already been posted on the Discord so it’s definitely a little early I know people are kind of getting a little antsy
with uh with the early tee time so yeah um first round later all the typical other stuff um coming out soon and uh yeah just uh it’ll be a pretty busy night trying to get lineups in here and as of right now what are you seeing if there’s an advantageous wave to Target for tea times for everyone um yeah I don’t know understanding that it could change given that it is overseas yeah um don’t know if Byron sees anything different but just everything I’ve seen when you look at just tomorrow like the winds are pretty
consistent like 12 to 14 miles an hour I don’t see any advantage like first round leader um Perhaps Perhaps you know we always talk about taking the morning guys over the afternoon um but overall for the tournament like Thursday and Friday are pretty identical so um the rain’s coming on Saturday but I don’t I don’t see any wave edge right now at all okay just something for go ahead Byron yeah the course is so wet you know there’s not going to dry out and stuff as the day goes on it’s just going to be pretty
normal something for everyone to keep in mind before they lock their lineup so we will be back next week until then good luck to everyone hang out in the Bedford golf Discord where again Ron has office hours a 5 30 Eastern 4 30 4 30 Eastern Chad as I still can’t get times right and the the chatter is going on over there since everyone’s trying to get their lineup and splash play pool set before everything happens so until next week good luck this evening remember be a little bit Kinder than what’s required we’ll see you
next time foreign
