It is unlikely we will see a government shutdown come Friday, says PIMCO’s Libby Cantrill

FOUR ON THE DEBATE STAGE. FIVE IN REALITY. >> RIGHT! OR MAYBE THERE WAS ONLY ONE THE ONLY TIME, SO THERE. >> IN THE MEANTIME, HOUSE SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON PROPOSING A TWO-STEP STOPGAP FUNDING BILL TO FUND SOME AGENCIES AND PROGRAMS UNTIL JANUARY 19th AND THEN CONTINUE FUNDING OTHERS UNTIL FEBRUARY 2nd. THIS APPROACH EXCLUDES THE MILITARY AID THAT’S REQUESTED BY PRESIDENT BIDEN FOR ISRAEL AND UKRAINE AND THAT’S GOT SOME IN THE SENATE KEIND OF RAISING BROS TOO. I WANT TO BRING IN LIBBY CANTRILL’S PIMCO’S HEAD OF PUBLIC POLICY. I’VE HEARD SOME DEMOCRATS SAY THEY THINK THIS IS

GIMMICKY BUT STILL SAY THEY MIGHT SUPPORT THIS. >> THAT’S EXACTLY RIGHT. SENATOR MAJORITY LEADER SCHUMER HAS SAID POSITIVE THINGS ABOUT THIS SAYING IT COULD HAVE BEEN MUCH WORSE. IT COULD HAVE ACTUALLY INCLUDED SOME SPENDING CUTS, SOME POLICY RIDERS THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN BASICALLY POISON PILLS FOR THE SENATE AND WHITE HOUSE. EFFE EFFECTIVELY, THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT SPEAKER McCARTHY PUSHED FORWARD AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER. THIS IS A CLEAN CONTINUING RESOLUTION. AS YOU SAID, FUNDS THE GOVERNMENT UNTIL JANUARY AND THEN UNTIL FEBRUARY RESPECTIVELY, DEPENDING ON THE APPROPRIATIONS BILLS. THE IRONIC THING HERE IS THAT OF COURSE

SPEAKER McCARTHY GOT OUSTED FOR DOING SOMETHING VERY SIMILAR. SPEAKER JOHNSON PROBABLY IS IN SAFER TERRITORY, BUT THIS FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES IS

A CLEAN CONTINUING RESOLUTION THAT HAS, I THINK A HIGH CHANCE OF PASSING IN BOTH THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE BEING SIGNED INTO LAW. BUT, THE BIG BUT HERE, IT WILL PAS PASS. IT WILL HAVE TO PASS WITH DEMOCRATIC VOTES. >> McCARTHY SAID THIS IS NOT ABOUT WHAT I’M DOING. IT’S ABOUT PERSONAL THINGS. >> YES! WITH CERTAIN PEOPLE, THIS KIND OF PLAYS INTO THAT AS WELL. >> EXACTLY. >> JOHNSON SAYING IT THIS WAY.

McCARTHY SAID IT THIS WAY. I MEAN, IT’S THE SAME THING. >> YES. >> BUT HE SOMEHOW IS PROBABLY MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN McCARTHY AND GOT UNANIMOUS — BECAUSE OF THE MESS THAT LED UP TO THAT FINAL SPEAKER VOTE. DOES HE STILL HAVE SOME OF THAT HONEYMOON PERIOD? >> THERE ARE A FEW ADVANTAGES THAT SPEAKER JOHNSON HAS THAT SPEAKER McCARTHY DOES NOT. HE HAD NEVER BEEN A CHAIRMAN OR A RANKING MEMBER OF A COMMITTEE. HE’D NEVER BEEN SORT OF IN THE MIX IN TERMS OF THESE NEGOTIATIONS. >> WHEN PEOPLE SAID HE HAD NO BAG BAGGAGE. >> HE’S

ONLY BEEN THERE FOR SEVEN YEERKS. HE IN THIS RESPECT IT ACTUALLY HELPS HIM, SO TO YOUR POINT, YES, DO I THINK THAT HE HAS HAD A HONEYMOON PERIOD? IS THAT PROBABLY NEAR THE END? MOST LIKELY. AND I THINK WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THAT SORT OF COME HOME TO ROOST IN SORT OF JANUARY AND FEBRUARY WHEN YOU ACTUALLY HAVE TO SEE THESE FULL APPROPRIATIONS BILLS. >> I HAVE THE A LITTLE BETTER ABOUT WHAT HE WAS DOING WHEN YOU SEE THIS, LIKE, HE’S HERE TO GOVERN AND LEGISLATE TOOCHLT HE WANTS TO MAKE SURE THE GOVERNMENT STAYS OPEN.

>> I THINK THE BOTTOM LINE FOR MARKETS AND INVESTORS AND OUR CLIENTS, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE SEE A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN COME FRIDAY. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT, AGAIN, WE SEE THESE THINGS PASS WITH SORT OF FULL SUPPORT. NOW, REPUBLICANS ON THE RIGHT FLANK ARE GOING TO BE UPSET ABOUT IT, BUT FOR KIND OF THE BOTTOM LINE HERE IS THAT WE SEE THE GOVERNMENT FUNDED AT LEAST UNTIL JANUARY. >> THE JUDD GREGG WAS ON AND SAID THAT EVEN THE CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS FREEDOM TYPE SHOULD LOVE THIS BECAUSE IT ACTUALLY FREES THE SPENDING FOR HALF THE FISCAL

YEAR. IF THE DEMOCRATS GET WIND OF THAT, THEN THEY’RE NOT GOING TO SUPPORT IT. JUDD’S POINT WAS PASS IT AND GET IT TO THE SENATE AND THEN IT’S IN THEIR COURT AND THEY’RE GOING TO HAVE TO DO SOMETHING. >> YEAH, A BIT OF A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE ON THIS BECAUSE 2023 THE FISCAL YEAR WAS ELEVATED FROM WHAT 2024 WAS SUPPOSED TO BE — >> KEEP IT WHERE IT IS. >> YES, RIGHT, SO BUT THE DEBT LIMIT BILL ACTUALLY CUT SPENDING, JUST VERY MARGINALLY ON THE NONDEFENSE DISCRETIONARY SIDE, SO THIS IS ACTUALLY I THINK MORE OF A

BOON FOR DEMOCRATS THAN IT IS FOR REPUBLICANS. BUT I THINK THAT KIND OF THE BOTTOM LINE HERE IS THAT PEOPLE ARE SICK OF THIS BACK AND FORTH. THEY WANT TO GET TO THE BUSINESS OF LEGISLATING. YOU KNOW, SOMETHING THAT SPEAKER JOHNSON DID DO WAS SORT OF STAGGERED APPROACH. BUT HE ALSO DOESN’T INCLUDE ANY FUNDING FOR UKRAINE OR ISRAEL. REPUBLICANS, YOU KNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE HOUSE FREEDOM CAUCUS WANTED THAT TO BE DEALT WITH SEPARATELY. >> WILL THIS PASS THE HOUSE WITHOUT ANY DEMOCRAT? >> I DO NOT THINK IT WOULD PASS ON A PURE REPUBLICAN VOTE NO.

>> THEY LOST CHIP ROY AND MPG SUPPOSE LID. >> SEVERAL HOUSE FREEDOM CAUCUS FOLKS INTIMATED THEY’RE NOT GOING TO VOTE FOR IT, AND ALSO IMPORTANTLY, THIS IS A LITTLE WONKY, BUT USUALLY REPUBLICANS CAN LOSE FOUR VOTES AND STILL PASS A BILL. BECAUSE THERE WAS A SPECIAL ELECTION THAT HAPPENED IN RHODE ISLAND, DEMOCRATS ACTUALLY HAVE MORE VOTES RIGHT NOW THAN — THEY HAVE A FULL ROSTER THAN REPUBLICANS, THEY HAVE A SPECIAL ELECTION IN UTAH AT THE END OF THIS MONTH. THAT MEANS EFFECTIVELY THEY CAN ONLY LOSE THREE VOTES VERSUS THE USUAL FOUR. >> HOW MANY DEMOCRATS

WOULD VOTE? >> I THINK A LOT OF DEMOCRATS VOTE FOR THIS. >> YOU DO? FOR THIS ONE. >> I DO. I DON’T WANT TO PREJUDGE THIS. WE HAVE TO GO THROUGH RULES COMMITTEE. THAT WILL BE SORT OF THE FIRST TEST. I THINK IF IT GETS ON THE FLOOR OF THE HOUSE, FOLKS WANT TO GO HOME. >> THAT’S THE END OF MIKE JOHNSON THEN. >> WE’LL SEE. I THINK IT MAKES — >> I MEAN, I HOPE NOT. BUT. >> JANUARY APPROPRIATION — >> THAT’S PART OF WHAT SUNK McCARTHY, SFLIEGT.