We expect a sharp increase in gold prices into 2024-2025: CPM's Jeffrey Christian
JEFFERIES AIR RIGHT NOW. WE DON’T HAVE TO WAIT FOR MONTHS. WAIT FOR LET’S HAVE A LOOK AT GOLD. YOU CAN SEE IT’S DOWN AROUND WE ARE JOINED BY JEFFREY CHRISTIAN, MANAGING PARTNER AT CPM GROUP JEFFREY. SORRY ABOUT THAT BOTCHED INTRODUCTION. GREAT TO TALK TO YOU AGAIN. TELL US WHY DID GOLD HIT THAT SPOT? GOLD ANYWAY A RECORD HIGH OVERNIGHT. >> IT’S NOT QUITE CLEAR TO US YET. WE’RE WAITING FOR SOME DATA THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE TUESDAY. BUT YOU KNOW, WHAT HAPPENED WAS THERE WAS A SURGE WHEN TRADING ON THE COMEX CURRY COMMENCED ELECTRONICALLY AT 6:00PM
EASTERN TIME YESTERDAY. THERE WAS WITHIN ABOUT 18 MINUTES, A SURGE OF TRADING VOLUME AND YOU SAW ABOUT 4.3 MILLION OUNCES OF GOLD FUTURES CONTRACTS TRADED WITHIN 32 MINUTES. IT’S VERY IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND IT WASN’T A SINGLE TRADE, IT WAS THOUSANDS OF TRADES OVER A HALF HOUR THAT DROVE THE PRICE UP FROM AROUND. I THINK AROUND 2060 AT THE TIME TO ABOUT 2150 YEAR, SO THAT HIGH WAS $2152 AND THEN IT CAME BACK DOWN THE $2038. IT’S ABOUT 2050 RIGHT NOW. IT WAS A LARGE NUMBER OF TRAITS. NOW THE CRITICAL THING, THERE’S CRITICAL THINGS. IT SILVER
PETROLEUM, PLATINUM ALSO ROSE SHARPLY AT THAT TIME AND THEN FELL BACK AND THE S&P 500 FUTURES ON FELL SHARPLY AT THAT TIME. AND THAT BACK
PEOPLE COVERING SHORT POSITIONS IN GOLD, SILVER OIL AND PLATINUM AND ONE POSITIONS EQUITIES O THEY BUY IN FRESH LONG POSITIONS IN THE COMMODITIES AND AND SELL MAKING FRESH SHORT POSITIONS IN THE EQUITIES. WE WON’T KNOW TILL WE SEE THE OPEN INTEREST DATA TOMORROW AND THAT WILL GIVE US A LOT OF INSIGHT AS TO THE. YAGER OF THE BUYING THAT WE AND THE SUSTAINABILITY ARE LIKELY NEXT DIRECTIONS. >> JEFFREY, WHAT’S YOUR OUTLOOK FOR GOLD IN THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM? >> REALLY HAVE BEEN PREDICTING A SHARP INCREASE IN GOLD PRICES IN THE FINAL QUARTER OF THIS
YEAR AND INTO 2024 2025. I THINK THIS IS A TASTE OF WHAT TO EXPECT AS THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC WORLD’S UNFOLD. >> OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 MONTHS. SO THIS IS IN LINE. WHAT WE’VE BEEN EXPECTING, WE HAVE FOR SEVERAL YEARS URGING INVESTORS TO CURB THEIR ENTHUSIASM PACE THEMSELVES, SAYING THAT IT WOULD PROBABLY 2024 2025. BEFORE WE SAW NOT GO. PRICES SET RECORD PRICE LEVELS IN 2020, 2021, 2022 AND AGAIN, THEY’RE SETTING RECORD LEVELS IN 2023, BUT YOU KNOW, THAT’S THAT’S WHAT WE’VE SEEN AS A PRECURSOR TO A MORE FORCEFUL UPWARD MOVE THIS IN
2024 2025. AND THIS JUST SORT OF CONFIRMS WHAT WE’VE BEEN SAYING FOR THE LAST 4 YEARS. >> JEFFREY, WE WERE TIGHT FOR TIME. YOU WROTE A PIECE IN LATE OCTOBER TALKING ABOUT THE SOARING GLOBAL DASH NOT JUST AMERICA USE A LOT OF ARE SOME GOLD GOLD FOCUS ON AMERICA’S MASSIVE DEFICITS AND LOW AND GROWING DESK. YOU THINK THERE IS SOME HYPERBOLE OUT DEBT IS A PROBLEM, BUT PERHAPS PEOPLE SHOULDN’T JUST BE FOCUSING ON AMERICAN GOVERNMENT BORROWINGS. >> RIGHT, YOU KNOW, FIRST OFF, THERE’S ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF HYPERBOLE. THERE’S ALL THESE PEOPLE ARE RAVING THEIR ARMS AND
THEY THIS IS ARMAGEDDON. >> IT’S ACTUALLY SOLVABLE AND IT’S ACTUALLY SIMILAR IN SOME WAYS TO WHAT WE SAW IN THE LATE 1940’S DRINKING 46 47 48. >> WHEN U.S. TREASURY DEBT WAS ABOUT 120, BUT WERE THE POINTS WE MADE WAS U.S.. TREASURY DEBT IS ONE OF LEAST RISKY ASSETS. AND IF YOU LOOK AT GLOBAL DEBT IS 3 TIMES GLOBAL GDP, WHEREAS U.S. TREASURY DEBT IS ONLY 120% OF US GDP. SO YOU’VE GOT A MUCH BIGGER PROBLEM ON A GLOBAL BASIS WITH MUCH RISKIER DEBT. AND WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF YOU AS YOU HAVE DEBT PROBLEMS UNFOLDING,
IS THAT PEOPLE ACTUALLY PIVOT AWAY FROM THAT OTHER GET TO THE MORE SECURE U.S. TREASURIES, YOU KNOW, THEY, THEY’RE ALL THESE PEOPLE. I MEAN, I KNOW ONE WHO’S BEEN SAYING THAT THE TREASURY MARKET IS GOING TO COLLAPSE SINCE 1981. THERE ARE ALL THESE PEOPLE READING FOR THE U.S. TREASURIES TO COLLAPSE. NO, BE THE LAST DEBT MARKET TO COLLAPSE THERE. THE PLACE ALONG WITH GOLD THAT PEOPLE FLOCK TO WHEN THE DEBT SITUATION IN LITTLE MORE RISKY SECURITIES, CORPORATE DEBT, PRIVATE GET CONSUMER DEBT, OTHER GOVERNMENTS THAT U.S. TREASURY WILL BE THE PLACE THAT PEOPLE FLOCK TO
